贝叶斯小面积估计方法用于印度地区级生育率和死亡率估计,2015-16年至2019-21年
Laxmi Kant Dwivedi1, Somnath Jana2, Shekhar Chauhan3
1Department of Survey Research & Data Analytics International Institute for Population Sciences Mumbai India.
Health science reports
|February 11, 2026
概括
印度 印度 印度
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 生育率和儿童死亡率是印度的主要公共卫生指标.
- 了解他们的地区一级趋势对于有效的卫生政策和干预至关重要.
- 生育率下降和儿童死亡率下降之间的关系是研究的一个重要领域.
研究的目的:
- 估计和比较印度各个地区的生育率和儿童死亡率.
- 利用国家家庭健康调查 (NFHS) 数据 (第4轮和第5轮) 分析区域趋势.
- 了解这些趋势对有针对性的健康干预措施的影响.
主要方法:
- 研究的总生育率 (TFR),新生儿死亡率 (NMR),婴儿死亡率 (IMR) 和五岁以下死亡率 (U5MR).
- 使用贝叶斯方法和Poisson回归模型进行区级估计.
- 从NFHS第4轮 (2015年至2016年) 和第5轮 (2019年至21年) 的雇员数据.
主要成果:
- 2015-16年至2019-21年期间,TFR低于1.6 (从21到166) 和NMR低于10 (从79到140) 的地区显著增加.
- 稳定的地区数量,TFR在1.6和2.1之间.
- 在降低生育率和降低儿童死亡率之间观察到强烈的关联.
结论:
- 解决生育和儿童死亡率的区域差异对于提高印度卫生干预效率至关重要.
- 建议优先获得计划生育和母婴健康服务.
- 地区级数据使得定制和更有效的公共卫生政策成为可能.
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