误解,自我报告的概率和长期护理保险在美国的采用情况
Thomas Blavet1,2, Bertrand Chopard3, Thomas Rapp4,5
1Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CNRS, Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne, 106-112 bd de l'Hôpital, Paris, FR-75647, France. thomas.blavet@univ-paris1.fr.
International journal of health economics and management
|February 11, 2026
概括
许多人低估了他们未来对长期护理 (LTC) 服务的需求,导致LTC保险的使用率很低. 错误的生存信念,无论是高估还是低估,都会对保险需求产生重大影响.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 在发达国家,长期护理 (LTC) 保险的采用率仍然很低,这表明专业LTC服务的感知和实际未来需求之间存在潜在的差距.
- 对未来健康和长寿的主观期望在财务规划中起着至关重要的作用,特别是在长期护理需求方面.
- 对生存信念的错误校准,即个人的期望偏离客观基准,可能会显著影响对LTC保险的需求.
研究的目的:
- 调查个人对生存和养老院入住的主观期望与他们对长期护理 (LTC) 保险的需求之间的关系.
- 检查生存信念的错误校准 (高估或低估与生命表基准相比) 如何影响LTC保险购买决策.
- 识别潜在的潜在机制,如认知限制或私人健康信息,这有助于错误的信念和随后的保险需求.
主要方法:
- 利用了12波健康与退休研究 (1996-2018) 数据,重点关注50-75岁的个人.
- 采用随机效应线性概率模型来估计主观期望对LTC保险采购的影响.
- 根据其生存信念与生命表概率的一致性,将个人分为几组:一致的,正偏差 (高估) 和负偏差 (低估).
主要成果:
- 具有与生命表基准一致的生存信念的个人在预计寿命更长时,LTC保险购买量增加.
- 那些大大高估自己的生存前景 (正偏差) 的人在LTC保险需求方面没有表现出系统的反应,可能是由于预测未来需求的困难.
- 低估生存率 (负偏差) 的个体对养老院入住预期做出了反应,但对生存预期的反应较小,这表明专注于短期护理需求而不是长期支出.
结论:
- 对生存信念的错误校准是导致长期护理 (LTC) 保险需求低的重要因素.
- 过度估计存活率可能与未来规划中的认知限制有关,而低估可能反映了私人健康信息或专注于立即关注的问题.
- 解决这些生存预期的认知和信息差距对于改善LTC保险的采用和确保为未来的护理需求提供足够的财务准备至关重要.
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