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在近期和未来的气候变化下,格陵兰冰盖融化事件打破了纪录
Josep Bonsoms1, Sergi González-Herrero2, Xavier Fettweis3
1Department of Geography, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain. josepbonsoms5@ub.edu.
Nature communications
|February 11, 2026
概括
极端格陵兰冰盖融化事件由于气候变化而加剧. 融水产量显著增加,未来的预测表明进一步出现重大异常.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 格陵兰冰盖 (GrIS) 对全球海平面上升至关重要.
- 越来越多地观察到夏季加剧的表面融化和极端融化事件.
- 驱动这些极端融化事件的潜在机制尚未完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 分析1950-2023年间Gris上发生的极端融化事件.
- 区分热力学和动力学对融水产生的贡献.
- 在高排放场景下预测极端融事件的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 利用基于模拟的框架与区域气候模型相结合.
- 分析了从1950年到2023年的极端融化事件.
- 解开融水生产的热力学和动态驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 热力学过程显著加剧了融水的产生,在循环类类似事件中增加了25%,在循环类类似事件中增加了63%.
- 最极端的融化事件,包括2012年,2019年和2021年的创纪录事件,缺乏动态先例.
- 十大最极端事件中有七起发生在2000年以后,异常达到综合平均值的三倍.
- 格陵兰北部的融水产量增长最强.
结论:
- 气候变化正在深深地影响Gris融化极端.
- 未来的预测 (SSP5-8.5,CMIP6) 表明到2100年,极端融水异常可能增加多达+372%.
- 了解这些机制对于预测未来海平面上升至关重要.
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