整合物种分布建模和气候预测,以预测物种重新分布
Arsalan Khalili-Moghadam1, Pejman Tahmasebi2
1Plant Protection Department, Agricultural College, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran. arsalan.khalili@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|February 11, 2026
概括
伊朗的物种分布随着气候变化而有很大变化,有些物种适应,而另一些物种面临衰退. 保护必须专注于这些关键物种的微息地和景观连接.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 动物学 动物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 是生态系统运作和食用相互作用至关重要的关键物种.
- 了解它们的分布对于预测生态系统对环境变化的反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查伊朗中部五种主要物种的当前和未来分布模式.
- 评估气候变化和不同排放场景对它们息地的影响.
- 确定特定物种的脆弱性和适应策略.
主要方法:
- 采用集体物种分布建模 (SDM) 方法,使用五种机器学习算法.
- 利用生物气候变量,地形和NDVI数据进行息地适宜性评估.
- 从2021年到2100年,根据各种气候变化情景 (SSP126到SSP585) 预计未来的分布.
主要成果:
- 最好的组合模型 (GBM) 显示出强大的预测性能 (ROC:0.78-0.90,TSS:0.75).
- 温度,降水和NDVI被确定为关键的环境驱动因素.
- 各种物种对气候变化的反应各异,脆弱性和利基范围的变化具有显著的跨物种变异性.
结论:
- 气候变化对的分布产生重大影响,具有特定物种的脆弱性.
- 排放场景对未来的分配结果具有重要影响.
- 保护战略应优先考虑微型息地保护和干旱土地生态系统的景观连接.
更多相关视频
相关概念视频
Formation of Species
45.4K
Speciation describes the formation of one or more new species from one or sometimes multiple original species. The resulting species are discrete from the parent species, and barriers to reproduction will typically exist. There are two primary mechanisms, speciation with and without geographic isolation—allopatric and sympatric speciation, respectively.
45.4K
What is a Species?
50.6K
Overview
50.6K
Keystone Species
25.0K
Measures of species biodiversity, such as richness (i.e., the number of species present) and evenness (i.e., their relative abundance), describe an ecological community’s structure. Many factors affect community structure, including abiotic factors (e.g., sunlight and nutrients), disturbances (e.g., fire or flood), species interactions (e.g., predation or competition), and chance events (e.g., foreign species invasion). Certain species—such as keystone species—also play a...
25.0K
Global Climate Change
29.0K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
29.0K
Multi-species Conserved Sequences
4.9K
Next-generation sequencing technologies have created large genomic databases of a variety of animals and plants. Ever since the human genome project was completed, scientists studied the genome of primates, mammals, and other phylogenetically distant living beings. Such large-scale studies have provided new insights into the evolutionary relationship between organisms.
Although the genome of each species varies greatly from each other, a few sequences are highly conserved. Such conserved...
Although the genome of each species varies greatly from each other, a few sequences are highly conserved. Such conserved...
4.9K
What is Climate?
20.9K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
20.9K


