基于HAPC模型的农村地区社会化老年人口护理服务需求的进化逻辑
Hongyu Chen1, Lilong Zhang2, Xiaojing Han1
1Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China.
Frontiers in public health
|February 12, 2026
概括
在中国,由于政策和经济的转变,对农村老年人口护理服务的需求正在增加. 年龄,时期和队列因素影响了这一需求,需要量身定制的服务优化.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 中国农村面临人口老龄化的中度趋势,城市地区的老龄化率高于城市地区.
- 农村地区对老年人护理服务的供需存在重大差距.
- 发展社会化护理系统对于应对农村老龄化挑战至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个理论框架,以了解农村社会化老年人口护理服务的需求产生.
- 根据政策驱动和个人选择场景,确定影响服务需求的关键因素.
- 分析年龄,时期和队列对农村老年人口护理服务需求的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了中国长度健康长寿调查 (CLHLS) 涵盖2005年至2018年的数据.
- 采用分层年龄时期队列 (HAPC) 模型来分析服务需求.
- 研究了年龄,时期和队列动态对服务利用的影响.
主要成果:
- 周期效应显示了基本和扩展护理服务需求的波动上升趋势,与政策和经济变化有关.
- 队列效应显著影响对扩展护理服务的需求,而不是基本服务.
- 需求特征在地区和性别群体之间表现出显著的异质性.
结论:
- 农村对社会化老年人口护理服务的需求是年龄,时期和队列因素的复杂相互作用.
- 优化服务供应需要与差异化的需求特征保持一致,以提高相关性和有效性.
- 政策干预应考虑农村护理服务的区域和性别特定需求.
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