二十一世纪中叶冰川灭绝的峰值
Lander Van Tricht1,2,3, Harry Zekollari3, Matthias Huss1,2,4
1Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland.
概括
冰川正在以惊人的速度消失,每年有成千上万的冰川在2041-2055年之间消失. 这种快速的冰川退却威胁着世界各地的文化重要景观.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 冰川变化预测经常强调质量和面积损失.
- 单个冰川的消失影响着文化,精神和旅游意义上的景观.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来全球消失的冰川数量.
- 为了确定每年冰川消失的高峰期.
主要方法:
- 利用三个全球冰川模型进行预测.
- 分析了冰川消失的区域变异性.
主要成果:
- 预计消失的冰川数量将急剧增加.
- 每年冰川消失的峰值预计在2041年至2055年之间,每年有多达4000个冰川消失.
- 冰川大小,气候,变暖和库存完整性的区域差异影响了变化.
结论:
- 冰川消失对全球独特的景观构成重大威胁.
- 冰川流失的速度预计将在未来几十年内大幅加快.
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