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开发和验证烟草使用个人级别模拟和跟踪 (TwIST) 模型的发展和验证
Sarah D Mills1,2, Nicholas Tapp Hughes3, Yu Zhang4
1Department of Health Behavior, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America.
PloS one
|February 12, 2026
概括
烟草使用个体级模拟和跟踪 (TwIST) 模型项目减少了成年吸烟率,但收入差异仍然存在. 薄荷香烟的使用预计将比非薄荷香烟减少得更慢,可能会增加戒烟困难.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 健康行为建模健康行为建模
背景情况:
- 烟草使用仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题.
- 准确的烟草使用预测对于有效的干预策略至关重要.
- 现有的模型可能无法完全捕捉个人层面的烟草使用动态.
研究的目的:
- 为了引入烟草使用个人级别模拟和跟踪 (TwIST) 模型.
- 预测未来的美国成年人吸烟率.
- 为了确定烟草使用的差异,并预测薄荷香烟消费的趋势.
主要方法:
- 为美国成年人群开发了一个基于个体的模拟模型 (TwIST).
- 利用了"烟草和健康人口评估研究"和其他国家数据集的数据.
- 采用二次马尔科夫模型与多项逻辑回归进行模拟,并与国家调查进行验证.
主要成果:
- 预计成人吸烟率将从2020年的12.4%下降到2050年的8.7%.
- 据估计,贫困地区成年人的吸烟率是贫困线以上人口的2.1-2.3倍.
- 预计薄荷醇香烟使用的下降速度较慢 (21%) 与非薄荷醇香烟 (38%) 相比.
结论:
- TwIST模型提供了可靠的烟草吸烟率预测.
- 预计吸烟者的收入差异将持续存在.
- 越来越多的吸烟者可能会使用薄荷香烟,这给戒烟工作带来了挑战.
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