从2004年到2024年,全球和区域的 chikungunya 负担:一个全球观测研究
Sijia Wang1, Yutong Liu1, Yaping Wang1,2
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Journal of global health
|February 12, 2026
概括
在全球范围内,奇孔古尼亚疫情正在增加,从2004年到2024年,病例发生率显著上升. 温度等环境因素和GDP等社会经济因素影响传播模式,需要加强监测和准备.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- Chikungunya 是一个不断增长的全球健康威胁,在 119 个国家爆发的疫情越来越多.
- chikungunya 的传播模式仍然不太清楚.
- 了解全球负担和传播对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 描述 chikungunya 的全球负担和时空趋势.
- 确定与 chikungunya 传播相关的国家级环境和社会经济因素.
- 为预防和控制 chikungunya 的战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 编制了每年国家一级的土著奇孔古尼亚病例 (2004-2024年).
- 使用病例数和人口数据计算出发病率.
- 采用通用添加模型 (GAM) 来分析发生率与环境/社会经济因素之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 在2004年至2024年期间,全球小孔古尼亚发病率从每10万人中从0.28上升到11.13.
- 美国和东南亚在2024年承受了最沉重的负担.
- 温度 (17°C以上),城市化和人均国内生产总值显著影响了奇孔古尼亚发病率.
结论:
- 奇孔古尼亚的全球负担正在扩大,受到环境和社会经济因素的影响.
- 加强监测和气候信息整合对于准备工作至关重要.
- 解决社会经济差距是有效预防奇孔古尼亚的关键.
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