气候变化对埃及粮食安全的影响,水资源依赖和政策解决方案
Faten Derouez1, Adel Ifa2, Mahmaod Alrawad3
1Department of Quantitative Method, College of Business Administration, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia.
Scientific reports
|February 12, 2026
概括
埃及的粮食安全受到气候变化,尼罗河水和人口增长的影响. 可再生能源和农业生产率具有积极影响,需要为可持续的粮食安全进行政策改革.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
背景情况:
- 埃及的粮食安全是一个关键问题,受到环境,人口和经济因素的复杂相互作用的影响.
- 气候变化,水资源短缺 (特别是依赖尼罗河) 和人口增长对维持粮食安全构成重大挑战.
- 可再生能源和农业生产率在缓解这些挑战中的作用需要深入研究.
研究的目的:
- 动态分析埃及粮食安全指标与从1990年到2023年的关键影响因素之间的关系.
- 评估气候变化,政治稳定,可再生能源,人口增长,尼罗河水份和农业生产力对粮食安全的短期和长期影响.
- 确定因果关系,并为加强粮食安全提供政策建议.
主要方法:
- 自行回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型用于检查短期和长期动态.
- 矢量错误纠正模型 (VECM) 分析协同集成和错误纠正机制.
- 格兰杰因果关系测试以确定变量之间的影响方向.
主要成果:
- 短期:粮食安全持续存在;气候变化带来了立即的负面影响;可再生能源和农业生产产生了积极的影响;依赖尼罗河水是有益的,而人口增长是有害的.
- 长期:气候变化和低效的尼罗河水资源管理对粮食安全产生负面影响;农业生产率和可再生能源仍然是积极的驱动力.
- 格兰杰因果关系表明粮食安全,农业生产和可再生能源之间的双向关系.
结论:
- 政策干预应侧重于加快可再生能源的采用和改善气候适应性农业.
- 重组尼罗河水管理以解决低效率和过度开采至关重要.
- 将人口管理与资源分配相结合的综合战略是埃及可持续粮食安全的必要条件.
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