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响应未来气候和土地利用变化的巨大变化,在大熊猫群中大型和中型陆地哺乳动物的巨大变化
Xuzhe Zhao1, Junfeng Tang1,2, Hongxia Xu2
1Hubei Key Laboratory of Biological Resources Protection and Utilization, Hubei Minzu University, Enshi 445000, China.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|February 13, 2026
概括
气候和土地利用变化威胁着哺乳动物息地,导致平均净息地丧失. 虽然气候变化的影响占主导地位,但土地利用变化可以放大或抵消这些影响,需要定制的保护战略.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 物种范围的变化受到气候和土地利用变化的相互作用的影响.
- 之前的研究经常孤立地检查这些因素,限制了对未来物种分布的全面理解.
- 大熊猫 (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) 范围是许多大型和中型陆地哺乳动物的关键息地.
研究的目的:
- 评估未来气候和土地利用变化对哺乳动物范围转移的孤立和综合影响.
- 评估土地利用变化对大熊猫范围内的气候变化影响的影响.
- 将模型中的预测与静态和动态气候和土地利用共变量进行比较.
主要方法:
- 使用了三个模型配置:动态气候/静态土地利用,静态气候/动态土地利用,动态气候/动态土地利用.
- 对23种大型和中型陆地哺乳动物物种的预测范围变化.
- 在不同的场景下分析了适合息地区域的净损失.
主要成果:
- 所有模型都预测,在研究的哺乳动物物种中,适合息地的平均净损失.
- 对大多数物种来说,气候变化的影响占主导地位,而土地利用变化的影响通常是无意义的或微弱的.
- 发现土地利用变化可能会放大或抵消气候变化的某些负面影响.
结论:
- 迫切需要有效的陆地保护战略,以减轻气候变化对大熊猫范围内的哺乳动物的影响.
- 保护规划必须考虑到个体物种对气候和土地利用变化反应的显著差异.
- 对于未来的物种分布预测,全面了解相互作用的环境变化至关重要.
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