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风险因素对老年人残疾的滞后影响:一种分布式滞后非线性模型方法
Yitong Mao1, Zhiting Guo1, Wen Gao2
1Nursing Department, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
风险因素,如腰和行走困难,立即增加了老年人的残疾. 抑郁症状和高血压带来长期风险,而握力和社会参与提供了保护.
科学领域:
- 老年学与公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 老年人的残疾是一个日益严重的公共卫生问题.
- 了解风险因素和残疾之间的时间关系对于有效的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 探索各种风险因素对老年人残疾的滞后和累积影响.
- 应用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNMs) 来分析这些时间关联.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自中国健康与退休长度研究 (CHARLS) 的数据.
- 雇佣的DLNMs用于评估风险因素对日常生活基本活动 (BADL) 的滞后影响.
- 计算累积相对风险 (CRR) 以量化在特定滞后期内累积的残疾风险.
主要成果:
- 直接风险:难以腰 (CRR=3.58) 和难以行走 (CRR=2.77).
- 中期风险:关节炎 (CRR=1.51) 在2-3年内再次出现残疾风险.
- 长期风险:抑郁症状 (CRR=2.38) 和心血压升高 (CRR=1.64) 显示了显著的累积风险.
- 保护因素:握力 (CRR=0.80) 和社会参与 (CRR=0.89) 是保护性的.
结论:
- 干预措施必须考虑风险因素的各种滞后特征,以减轻残疾.
- 需要进一步的研究来阐明滞后效应的生物学和社会学机制.
- 建议为具有不同滞后模式的因素开发有针对性的干预措施.
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