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IGRF-14从核心表面流速加速的世俗变化预测.

Frederik Dahl Madsen1,2, Ciarán D Beggan2, William J Brown2

  • 1School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

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概括
此摘要是机器生成的。

基于核心表面流速加速的新模型,预测了2025-2030年的地磁世俗变化 (SV). 该方法预测了潜在的地磁震荡,改进了之前的国际地磁参考场 (IGRF) 预测.

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核心表面流量建模核心表面流量建模地磁混蛋,这些地磁混蛋.地磁主义 地磁主义在IGRF-14中使用.卫星磁场的使用方法

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科学领域:

  • 地质物理学 地质物理学
  • 地球科学 地球科学 地球科学
  • 空间物理 空间物理

背景情况:

  • 国际地磁参考场 (IGRF) 需要定期更新,包括地磁世俗变化 (SV) 估计.
  • 以前的模型在更新之间的中间年预测SV方面存在局限性.
  • 最近的观测表明核心表面流加速的周期性行为,提供了新的预测潜力.

研究的目的:

  • 为第14代IGRF开发和提交2025-2030年期间的地磁世俗变化 (SV) 候选模型.
  • 通过分析核心表面流加速的周期性行为来预测SV.
  • 验证新方法论的预测能力与之前的IGRF代相比.

主要方法:

  • 从CHAMP和Swarm卫星数据 (2001-2024) 中获得的辅向核心表面流量模型.
  • 计算了流速加速度系数,并将它们配备了正弦函数,以便在未来进行外推.
  • 集成的加速度时间序列,以获得核心流量系数,并预测advected SV.

主要成果:

  • 使用CHAMP数据验证的方法比以前的IGRF代表现更好.
  • 基于Swarm的模型预测了IGRF-14的SV,预测了2024年 (赤道太平洋) 和2028年 (非洲中部) 的地磁震.
  • 该模型通过将周期性行为纳入SV预测来证明潜在的改进.

结论:

  • 拟议的方法,包括周期性核心表面流加速,为地磁性世俗变化预测提供了一个有前途的方法.
  • 该模型预测地磁冲击的能力突出显示了其对更准确IGRF更新的潜力.
  • 这种方法可能会提高对未来IGRF世代的SV预测.