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热的真正成本:评估德克萨斯州与热相关的死亡率估计方法
Jesse R J Rutt1, Andrew E Dessler1
1Texas A&M University College Station TX USA.
GeoHealth
|February 13, 2026
概括
计算与热有关的死亡人数 (HRD) 差异很大. 这项研究显示,德克萨斯州官方的人力资源部的数字大大低于报告死亡人数,中度高温导致大部分与热有关的死亡人数.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 热相关死亡 (HRD) 是一个重要的公共卫生问题.
- 准确量化HRD对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 现有的人力资源发展计数方法产生不同的结果,使准确的评估变得复杂.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较不同的方法来估计德克萨斯州与热有关的死亡率.
- 为了评估官方的人力资源发展部所占的比例,我们不应该报告与高温有关的死亡人数的真实负担.
- 确定中度热与极端热对与热有关的总体死亡率的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用了三种不同的方法:最佳温度方法 (OTM),极热方法 (XHM) 和过度死亡方法 (EDM).
- 分析了德克萨斯州2010-2023年死亡率数据.
- 将OTM,XHM和EDM的估计与德克萨斯州官方的人力资源数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 最佳温度方法 (OTM) 估计德克萨斯州夏季死亡率的2.2%与热量有关.
- 极端热量方法 (XHM) 将0.5%的死亡归因于极端温度,表明中度热量导致77%的HRD.
- 过度死亡方法 (EDM) 发现,与20世纪中叶的基线相比,死亡率增加了1.7%.
- 官方国家人力资源部计数 (0.3%) 实质上低于报告与热有关的死亡,XHM是最接近的估计方法.
结论:
- 德克萨斯州与高温有关的死亡报告的官方方法大大低估了实际负担.
- 温和的热量暴露比极端的热量对与热量有关的死亡率的贡献要大得多.
- 使用多种方法的综合方法是必要的,以准确评估和公共卫生规划有关与热有关的死亡率.
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