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使用试管婴儿/ICSI治疗临床怀孕结果预测模型的构建和验证:基于11,449例病例的回顾性研究
Yan Guo1,2,3, Yonghan Luo4,5, Yunxiu Li6
1Department of Reproductive Gynecology, NHC Key Laboratory of Healthy Birth and Birth Defect Prevention in Western China, First People's Hospital of Yunnan Province, Kunming, Yunnan, China.
Frontiers in endocrinology
|February 13, 2026
概括
一个新的预测模型确定了成功体外受精 (IVF) 和细胞内精子注射 (ICSI) 结果的关键因素. 这种工具有助于临床医生优化不孕症治疗,以提高临床怀孕率.
科学领域:
- 生殖医学 生殖医学
- 临床预测建模临床预测建模
- 不孕症治疗 不孕症治疗
背景情况:
- 不孕症影响着全球大量人口,需要有效的辅助生殖技术 (ART),如体外受精 (IVF) 和细胞内精子注射 (ICSI).
- 在IVF/ICSI中预测临床怀孕结果对于定制治疗策略和提高成功率至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证在接受试管婴儿/ICSI的患者中临床妊娠结果的预测模型.
- 确定影响IVF/ICSI治疗成功的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 对11449名接受试管婴儿/ICSI的患者进行了回顾性分析.
- 利用LASSO回归来确定怀孕的重要预测因素.
- 开发了一个Nomogram评分系统,用于个性化的预测,并使用ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析验证模型性能.
主要成果:
- 确定了八个关键预测因素:男性年龄,毛囊数量 (AFC),第3天的毛囊刺激激素 (FSH) 水平,子宫内膜厚度,女性年龄,可使用的胚胎数量,高质量的胚芽细胞数量和转移的胚胎数量.
- 预测模型表现出强大的区分能力,AUC值为0.839 (训练) 和0.827 (验证).
- 校准曲线和决策分析证实了模型的准确性和临床实用性.
结论:
- 针对IVF/ICSI临床怀孕结果,已经开发出一个包含八个关键因素的强大预测模型.
- 该模型是临床医生管理不孕症的宝贵决策支持工具,可实现个性化治疗优化.
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