使用NGHGI一致的碳预算跟踪国家层面的减缓进展
Konstantin Weber1, Cyril Brunner2, Reto Knutti2
1Institute for Atmosphere and Climate Science ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. konstantin.weber@env.ethz.ch.
Nature communications
|February 13, 2026
概括
国家剩余碳预算 (RCB) 现在与温室气体库存标准保持一致. 这种调整显著降低了全球RCB,表明1.5°C预算可能会在2027年耗尽,许多国家超过了他们的公平份额.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 剩余的碳预算 (RCB) 对于评估国家减缓气候变化的努力至关重要.
- 目前的RCB估计与国家温室气体库存 (NGHGI) 会计标准不一致.
- 不一致性挑战了全球气候目标和国家责任的准确跟踪.
研究的目的:
- 为了使国家央行计算与已建立的NGHGI会计准则保持一致.
- 提供最新的,方法上一致的全球和国家RCB估计.
- 评估各国在实现1.5°C和2°C等气候目标方面的进展.
主要方法:
- 将RCB计算与NGHGI中使用的二氧化碳会计原则相协调.
- 量化NGHGI调整对全球RCB对1.5°C和2°C情景的影响.
- 使用共同分配方法计算符合NGHGI的国家RCB.
- 根据"巴黎协定"中概述的公平原则,对国家RCB进行评估.
主要成果:
- 在2024年,NGHGI调整将全球1.5°C (50%) RCB降低约100 GtCO2 (~50%) 和2°C (66%) RCB降低约200 GtCO2 (~20%).
- 1.5°C (50%) 的NGHGI一致的全球RCB预计将在2027年耗尽.
- 到2025年,64-85个国家可能已经超过了他们对1.5°C (50%) RCB的公平份额.
结论:
- 将RCB与NGHGI标准保持一致,为跟踪减缓进展提供了一个更强大的框架.
- 当前的国家缓解努力,当与NGHGI一致的RCB进行评估时,揭示了许多国家的公平碳份额的大幅度过度支出.
- 开发的框架支持更准确的国家级评估气候行动和问责制.
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