基于机器学习的经济效率差异分析以及中国高碳和低碳产业之间的转型驱动因素
Zhilin Huang1, Qianyi Zhang2, Yayin Zheng3
1School of Business, Shantou University, Shantou, China. zhlhuang@stu.edu.cn.
Carbon balance and management
|February 13, 2026
概括
了解高碳与低碳行业的经济效率是气候转型的关键. 财务健康对一家公司有重大影响.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化政策 气候变化政策
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化需要了解高碳和低碳行业之间的经济效率差异.
- 有效的碳治理和低碳转型取决于分析企业的排放管理和经济表现.
- 确定企业转型能力的驱动因素对于政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查中国各行业企业碳排放管理和经济表现的异质性.
- 在气候变化背景下,确定企业转型能力的关键驱动因素.
- 以机器学习模型进行基准测试,根据碳档案和绩效对企业进行分类.
主要方法:
- 利用了8个行业的633家上市中国企业 (2010-2021) 的面板数据集.
- 根据排放概况将企业分为高碳和低碳组.
- 基于基准的随机森林,XGBoost,LightGBM和决策树模型来识别非线性关系和变量重要性,随机森林表现出卓越的性能 (95.7%准确率,0.989 AUC).
主要成果:
- 碳排放量,负债总额和资产总额是区分公司碳概况和业绩的最有影响力的因素.
- 利能力指标也在区分企业方面发挥了作用.
- 高碳企业面临更大的转型障碍 (减排成本,资产负债表限制),而低碳企业更好地获得政策利益.
结论:
- 金融健康对于实现低碳转型至关重要.
- 不同化的政策设计是必不可少的,包括有针对性的融资和高碳企业的灵活配额分配.
- 建议继续鼓励低碳行业的创新和市场扩张.
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