气候变化对淡水宏观营养素和英国各地农业产量的影响
Nathan Missault1, Victoria A Bell1, David M Cooper2
1UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK.
Journal of environmental management
|February 14, 2026
概括
未来的气候变化预计将使英国的农业产量减少5-20%,并且由于降雨模式的改变,淡水宏观营养素度将增加20-30%.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 气候模型预测气温上升和降雨量变化,影响农业和水系统.
- 了解这些影响对于管理农业产量和淡水质量至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟预计气候变化对英国农业产量和淡水巨量营养素流量和度的影响.
- 在未来的气候情景下量化作物产量和营养水平的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用了长期大规模综合模型 (LTLS-IM),这是一个全国范围的陆地和淡水模型.
- 从N14CP和Rothamsted景观模型 (RLM) 对营养损失的综合预测,与其他水源相结合.
- 模拟了近期的未来条件 (2020-2050年) 使用12个英国气候预测2018 (UKCP18) 在RCP 8.5场景下的实现.
主要成果:
- 大多数作物预计产量下降5-20%,仅仅是由于气候变化影响.
- 预计淡水宏观营养素度将增加20-30%.
- 年度营养物质负载相对稳定,但由于河流流量减少,度更高.
结论:
- 气候变化对英国的农业生产力构成重大威胁.
- 由于宏观营养素度增加,淡水质量可能会降低,即使营养素负载稳定.
- 需要适应战略,以减轻气候变化对农业和水资源的不利影响.
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