使用机器学习模型进行臭氧度预测,并与115个挥发性有机化合物测量和维度减小技术集成
Mengjuan Han1, Wenquan Ji2, Hongjun Wang3
1Division of Thermophysics Metrology, National Institute of Metrology, Beijing 100029, China; Zhengzhou Institute of Metrology, Zhengzhou 450001, China; Technology Innovation Center of Carbon Metrology, State Administration for Market Regulation, Zhengzhou 450001, China.
准确的臭氧度预测对于环境政策至关重要. 将挥发性有机化合物 (VOC) 数据与维度减小相结合,特别是使用新型SARFE-LSTM模型,显著提高了臭氧预测的准确性,特别是对于高度.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 高质量的臭氧度预测对于有效制定环境政策至关重要.
- 挥发性有机化合物 (VOC) 是臭氧形成的关键前体,它们的监测数据集成可以增强预测模型.
- 以前使用原始VOC数据的尝试显示,臭氧预测准确度的改善有限.
研究的目的:
- 用机器学习模型评估VOC监测数据和维度减小对臭氧预测准确度的影响.
- 开发和评估一个新的缩小维度模块 (SARFE),以改进臭氧预测.
- 为了比较与SARFE模块集成的不同机器学习模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自115种VOC物种的监测数据.
- 评估了四种机器学习模型:LSTM,XGBoost,RF和LightGBM.
- 开发并应用了一种新的模块,SARFE (全州空气污染研究中心机制+递归特征消除),用于降低维度.
主要成果:
- SARFE模块显著提高了所有评估的机器学习模型的性能.
- SARFE-LSTM模型表现出卓越的性能,实现了从0.78到0.92.9的R2值.
- 与传统的LSTM相比,SARFE-LSTM在预测高臭氧度方面取得了实质性的改进,R2,MAE和RMSE的改进分别在36.54%-200.00%,5.66%-18.62%和9.42%-22.45%之间.
结论:
- 尺寸缩小技术,特别是SARFE模块,对于有效利用机器学习模型中的VOC监测数据来进行臭氧预测至关重要.
- 在预测臭氧度方面,SARFE-LSTM模型提供了显著的进步,特别是高水平,优于传统的LSTM.
- 历史臭氧水平和异烯被确定为关键预测因素,强调前体监测对于准确预测的重要性.
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