长期的时空异质性以及长江流域湖泊热力学驱动因素
Yuankun Wang1, Weiguo Ma1, Jiaxin Tao1
1School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, PR China.
Environmental research
|February 14, 2026
概括
长江流域的湖面水温正在上升,尤其是在中流地区. 气候变化和城市化是影响水生生态系统的关键驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 湖面水温 (LSWT) 对于水生生态系统的健康至关重要,并表明气候变化的影响.
- 了解LSWT的动态对于管理长江等大河流盆地至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在六个大长江流域湖泊中调查LSWT的时空模式和驱动因素.
- 区分气候变化和人类对LSWT的影响.
主要方法:
- 重建了一个长期 (1988-2022) 每月的LSWT数据集,使用谷歌地球引擎的统计单窗口算法.
- 与现场测量相对应的验证LSWT数据,实现高精度 (NSE>0.95,RMSE <1.65°C).
- 使用归因分析来确定空气温度和人类活动的影响.
主要成果:
- 观察到盆地范围内的变暖趋势为0.439°C/十年,中部地区的变暖速度最快.
- 在LSWT趋势和季节性变化中确定了显著的时空异质性.
- 发现空气温度主导了年度间的LSWT变化 (>60.5%),但城市化显著加剧了变暖,特别是在特定的季节.
结论:
- 长江流域的LSWT由于气候变化而增加,区域差异很大.
- 无论是自然气候驱动因素还是局部的人类活动,如城市化,都塑造了LSWT模式.
- 这些发现支持可持续的湖泊管理,通过分离气候和人为影响.
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