街道水平的环境细颗粒物和结核病:一种机器学习和贝叶斯空间时间分析
Yuan Liao1, Dan Men2, Huaichen Li3
1Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|February 14, 2026
概括
短期接触细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 与结核病 (TB) 发病率的增加有关. 弱势群体如老年人,女性和农村居民面临更高的风险,特别是在寒冷的月份.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 空间分析是一种空间分析.
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 仍然是一个重要的全球传染病威胁.
- 有限证据表明,短时间的细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 暴露与结核病发病率在颗粒状空间层面之间存在联系.
研究的目的:
- 在中国济南,调查短期PM2.5暴露与活跃结核病发病之间的街道水平关联.
- 确定PM2.5对结核病发病率的影响中的高风险子组和季节性变化.
主要方法:
- 使用的每日街道水平PM2.5度通过极端梯度增强 (XGBoost) 模型和GIS估计.
- 采用贝叶斯的层次空间时间模型来量化8,291个结核病病例 (2015-2019) 的暴露-反应关系.
- 根据年龄,性别,季节和居住地点进行了分层分析.
主要成果:
- 在3天后的PM2.5增加10μg/m3与结核病发病率上升2%有关 (IRR=1.02,95%CI:1.01-1.03).
- 显著的影响持续到6天的延迟 (IRR=1.01,95% CI:1.00-1.02).
- 在老年人 (≥65岁),女性,农村居民以及寒冷季节 (11月至4月) 观察到高风险.
结论:
- 短期的PM2.5暴露是结核病发病率的重要风险因素.
- 公共卫生干预措施应优先保护高风险子组,并在寒冷季节实施污染控制.
- 调查结果强调需要有针对性的战略来减轻与空气污染相关的结核病负担.
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