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整合贝叶斯网络和PLUS-INVEST模型,在未来的土地使用场景下,优化碳储存的空间优化,在中国武江流域,中国
Qingshan Li1, Lele Zhang1, Jiaoting Peng2
1School of Management Science and Engineering, Guizhou University of Finance and Economics, Guiyang, 550025, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|February 14, 2026
概括
优化陆地生态系统的碳储存对中国至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态系统服务和气候变化
- 空间规划和土地使用管理.
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化需要优化陆地生态系统的碳储存,以实现区域碳平衡和碳中立.
- 中国的"双碳"目标强调需要战略性土地利用规划,以加强碳封存.
研究的目的:
- 根据各种发展情景,到2030年模拟武江河流域的土地利用变化和碳储存分布.
- 用贝叶斯网络模型空间优化碳储存模式.
- 为旨在实现碳中和目标的土地利用政策提供科学指导.
主要方法:
- 使用PLUS (补丁生成土地利用模拟) 和InVEST (生态系统服务和权衡的综合估值) 模型的结合模拟.
- 场景分析包括城市发展,生态保护,耕地保护和自然发展.
- 空间优化利用贝叶斯网络模型进行区分和变量选.
主要成果:
- 武江河流域的历史碳储存显示了下降然后上升的趋势,中北部的高值和西南部的低值.
- 到2030年,生态保护情景显著增加碳储存,而其他情景导致减少.
- 贝叶斯网络确定了关键变量,使区分为生态保护区,缓冲区,限制开发区和经济发展区.
结论:
- 生态保护方案在增强武河流域的碳储存方面最有效.
- 基于贝叶斯网络分析的空间分区为差异化土地利用管理提供了一个框架.
- 这项研究为优化生态系统碳储存提供了关键的见解,并为土地利用政策提供了信息,以实现中国的"双碳"目标.
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