传统的考克斯回归在预测中等到高级肝细胞癌的长期进展方面优于大型语言模型
Kang Li1, Chen Wang2, Yiqi Xiong2
1Biomedical Information Center, Beijing You'An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Frontiers in oncology
|February 16, 2026
概括
传统的考克斯模型在预测长期肝细胞癌 (HCC) 进展风险方面表现优于大型语言模型 (LLM). 将Cox模型与LLM相结合可能会提高HCC患者未来预测的准确性.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 人工智能的人工智能
背景情况:
- 肝细胞癌 (HCC) 在预测长期进展方面构成了重大挑战.
- 准确的风险分层对于优化中等到高级HCC的治疗策略至关重要.
- 传统的统计模型和新兴的人工智能方法为改善预后准确性提供了潜力.
研究的目的:
- 将大型语言模型 (LLM) 的预测性能与长期HCC进展风险的传统考克斯回归模型进行比较.
- 评估不同治疗组合在延长HCC患者无进展生存期 (PFS) 的有效性.
主要方法:
- 分析了一组576名中期至晚期HCC患者的队列.
- 使用依赖时间的AUC,决策曲线分析,校准曲线,NRI和IDI来评估预测性性能.
- 开发和验证了LLM (DeepSeek R1,DeepSeek V3,Qwen/QWQ-32B) 和一个Cox回归模型.
主要成果:
- 除去和/或免疫检查点抑制剂 (ICI) 与标准治疗的结合显著延长了PFS (中位数为12.3个月).
- 考克斯回归模型显示了强大的歧视,AUC在培训队列中从0.72到0.96不等,在验证队列中从0.75到0.97.
- 大多数LLM在预测长期HCC进展风险方面表现低于Cox模型,除了DeepSeek R1在特定时间点.
结论:
- 传统的考克斯模型目前为预测长期HCC进展提供了比LLM更好的性能.
- 将考克斯模型的稳定性与LLM的数据处理能力相结合,可能会提高未来的预测准确性.
- 优化的治疗策略包括切除和/或ICI可以改善HCC患者的PFS.
更多相关视频
04:09Predicting Treatment Response to Image-Guided Therapies Using Machine Learning: An Example for Trans-Arterial Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Published on: October 10, 2018
8.9K
12:24A Three-Dimensional Spheroid Model to Investigate the Tumor-Stromal Interaction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Published on: September 30, 2021
6.2K
相关概念视频
01:21Cancer Survival Analysis
784
Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...
784
02:07Tumor Progression
7.5K
Tumor progression is a phenomenon where the pre-formed tumor acquires successive mutations to become clinically more aggressive and malignant. In the 1950s, Foulds first described the stepwise progression of cancer cells through successive stages.
Colon cancer is one of the best-documented examples of tumor progression. Early mutation in the APC gene in colon cells causes a small growth on the colon wall called a polyp. With time, this polyp grows into a benign, pre-cancerous tumor. Further...
Colon cancer is one of the best-documented examples of tumor progression. Early mutation in the APC gene in colon cells causes a small growth on the colon wall called a polyp. With time, this polyp grows into a benign, pre-cancerous tumor. Further...
7.5K
02:07Improving Translational Accuracy
15.1K
Base complementarity between the three base pairs of mRNA codon and the tRNA anticodon is not a failsafe mechanism. Inaccuracies can range from a single mismatch to no correct base pairing at all. The free energy difference between the correct and nearly correct base pairs can be as small as 3 kcal/ mol. With complementarity being the only proofreading step, the estimated error frequency would be one wrong amino acid in every 100 amino acids incorporated. However, error frequencies observed in...
15.1K
02:07Improving Translational Accuracy
3.7K
3.7K