在米兰,2007年至2021年的癌症发病率和死亡率趋势
Carlotta Buzzoni1, Federico Gervasi, Fabiana Salerno
1Epidemiology Unit, Agency for Health Protection of Milan, Milan, Italy.
概括
从2007年到2021年,男性癌症发病率下降,女性癌症发病率稳定,两性死亡率下降. 由于COVID-19大流行,2020年癌症发病率暂时下降,但长期癌症趋势基本上没有受到影响.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 基于人口的癌症登记册对于监测长期癌症发病率和死亡率趋势至关重要.
- 了解这些趋势对于有效的公共卫生政策和资源分配至关重要.
- 随着COVID-19大流行,医疗保健系统出现了前所未有的干扰,这可能会影响癌症监测和治疗.
研究的目的:
- 评估2007年至2021年在意大利米兰和洛迪的长期癌症发病率和死亡率趋势.
- 具体评估2020年COVID-19大流行对癌症趋势的影响.
- 分析性别的趋势,并确定受影响的特定癌症类型.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自米兰癌症登记处 (人口350万) 的癌症病例 (ICD-O-3) 和死亡率 (ICD-10) 的数据.
- 计算了年龄标准化率,并使用结点回归来估计趋势,最初不包括2020年的数据,以避免与大流行有关的扭曲.
- 进行敏感性分析并评估注册表数据的初步质量指标.
主要成果:
- 在男性中,总体癌症发病率下降 (APC -1.9%/年),在女性中稳定/适度下降 (APC -0.6%/年,2011-2021).
- 死亡率在两性中均呈现稳步下降 (APC -1.9%/年男性, -2.1%/年女性).
- 2020年发生了急剧的发病率下降 (-19%的男性, -13%的女性) 由于大流行中断,在2021年恢复到基线. 甲状腺癌和丸癌的增加也被注意到.
结论:
- 癌症发病率显示男性下降趋势,女性稳定/略有下降,而两性死亡率继续下降.
- 2020年的发病率下降主要是大流行病的破坏效应,对已建立的趋势的长期影响有限.
- 基于人口的癌症登记册对于跟踪癌症趋势和为卫生政策提供信息至关重要,即使是在公共卫生危机中.
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