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概念化系统思维和复杂性建模用于循环经济量化:系统性审查和批判性分析
Soumava Boral1, Leon Black1, Costas A Velis1,2
1School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
概括
量化循环经济 (CE) 是复杂的. 这项对60项研究的审查发现系统动态 (SD) 和基于代理的建模 (ABMS) 往往是孤立的,限制了全面的CE系统分析和决策支持.
科学领域:
- 系统科学 系统科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 量化循环经济 (CE) 是至关重要的,但由于其复杂性和动态性而具有挑战性.
- 系统思维方法,如系统动态 (SD) 和基于代理的建模和模拟 (ABMS),用于建模复杂的系统.
- 现有的研究经常孤立地应用这些方法,阻碍了全面的分析.
研究的目的:
- 审查和分析将SD或ABMS应用于CE量化的研究.
- 确定目前对CE的建模方法的局限性.
- 突出需要采用综合系统方法,以获得更好的CE决策支持.
主要方法:
- 进行了系统审查的首选报告项目和范围审查的元分析 (PRISMA-ScR).
- 系统审查了60项使用SD或ABMS进行CE量化研究的研究.
- 检查了各种行业的应用,包括生物基材料,建筑和工业共生.
主要成果:
- SD和ABMS都捕捉到反循环和循环的时间动态,但它们经常被单独使用.
- SD和ABMS的有限集成,或与LCA和MCDA等静态工具的集成,限制了多尺度建模和决策支持.
- 显而易见的是,缺乏标准化指标和整体评估工具,特别是在社会可持续性方面.
结论:
- 单独使用SD和ABMS限制了全面的CE建模和全系统的决策支持.
- 需要采用综合系统方法,将动态和静态建模工具结合起来.
- 开发统一的评估工具对于基于证据的政策制定和更广泛的工业采用CE原则至关重要.
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