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对II期随机癌症临床试验的贝叶斯治疗选择设计

Moka Komaki¹, Satoru Shinoda², Haiyan Zheng³

¹Department of Biostatistics, Doctoral Degree Program, Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine, Japan.

Statistics in medicine

|February 17, 2026

概括

本研究引入了针对癌症II期临床试验的新贝叶斯设计,提高了治疗选择效率和实用性. 新方法为频率主义方法提供了灵活的替代方案,有助于选择优质的癌症疗法.

科学领域:

临床试验方法论临床试验方法论
贝叶斯统计学贝叶斯统计学
癌症研究癌症研究

背景情况:

设计高效的II期癌症临床试验对于有效的治疗选择至关重要.
频率主义设计虽然已经确立,但由于固定的门,其灵活性受到限制.
贝叶斯式方法通过结合先前的知识和更新信念,提供透明度和适应性.

研究的目的:

为II期癌症临床试验提出一个新的贝叶斯设计,以提高治疗选择.
为这些试验开发在贝叶斯框架内确定样本大小的方法.
为临床医生提供实施贝叶斯设计的实用工具.

主要方法:

一个贝叶斯决策规则,在二期试验中使用二元结果的后置区间概率.
整合联合分销,以确定表现最佳的治疗方法.
开发用于贝叶斯治疗选择设计的两个样本大小确定方法.

主要成果:

建议的贝叶斯设计有助于透明的决策,选择最佳的癌症治疗方法.
通过模拟和真实数据应用,在随机试验中克服样本大小约束的能力.
开发一个R Shiny应用程序,以便用户友好地实现贝叶斯设计.

结论:

新的贝叶斯学方法提供了一个灵活而实用的方法来设计第二阶段癌症临床试验.
开发的样本大小方法支持在贝叶斯框架下进行可靠的治疗选择.
在临床实践中,R Shiny应用程序使先进的贝叶斯设计在临床实践中的使用实现了民主化,推动了癌症治疗评估.

关键词:

二项式数据二项式数据灵活的设计灵活的设计.随机对象临床试验是指随机对象临床试验.样本大小计算的计算选设计的选设计

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