热量指数缺少什么来帮助预测精英田径运动中与热量相关的风险?
David Bandiera1,2, Frédéric Garrandes3,4, Jan Kowalski5
1Department of Movement, Human and Health Sciences, Università degli Studi di Roma Foro Italico, Roma, Italy.
British journal of sports medicine
|February 17, 2026
概括
在精英耐力田径运动中,强迫性热中风 (EHS) 风险很高,特别是在高湿球球温度 (WBGT) 时. 目前的模型缺乏运动员与热有关的风险的预测准确性.
科学领域:
- 运动医学 运动医学
- 环境生理学环境生理学
- 田径运动表现表现
背景情况:
- 精英田径比赛面临着运动热中风 (EHS),没有完成 (DNF) 事件和医疗遭遇 (MED) 的风险.
- 湿球球体温度 (WBGT) 是评估运动员热应变的关键热指数.
- 了解环境,个人和种族因素对于减轻与热有关的风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在精英田径运动中描述EHS,DNF和MED结果的频率.
- 评估这些结果与环境,个人和种族相关变量之间的关联.
- 为了评估运动员热应变的湿球球体温度 (WBGT) 的预测准确性.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自80个世界田径比赛 (2019-2024) 的4938名精英运动员在五个学科的数据.
- 统计方法包括斯皮尔曼等级相关性,皮尔森千平方测试和负二项式回归.
- 通过交叉验证 (leave-one-out) 来评估各种模型的预测能力.
主要成果:
- 平均而言,EHS发生在8/1000,当WBGT超过28.0°C时增加到16/1000.
- 在马拉松,步行比赛和步道比赛中,DNF和MED的比率显著更高.
- 平均辐射温度与EHS (R2=0.11) 相比,与WBGT (R2=0.04) 的相关性更强,总体预测准确性有限.
结论:
- 精英耐力田径赛事存在高风险的运动热中风 (EHS).
- 虽然较高的WBGT和辐射温度与增加的EHS相关,但对于精英运动员来说,它们缺乏足够的预测能力.
- 未来的预测模型应该纳入诸如热度适应和最近的疾病等因素,以提高准确性.
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