建模土地使用诱导的飞狐的食分布和新出现的溢出风险
Erin Stafford1, Åke Brännström2,3,4, Kyrre Kausrud5
1Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
|February 18, 2026
概括
土地利用变化影响飞狐,通过息地碎片化增加动物传播疾病的风险. 再造林和保护工作可以通过恢复息地和减少物种接触来减轻这些风险.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 飞狐是动物传播疾病的关键储存库.
- 土地使用和土地覆盖变化 (LCLUC) 对飞行为和人类互动的影响尚未得到充分理解.
- 了解这些动态对于公共卫生风险评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查LCLUC如何影响飞狐的移动,种群动态和动物传播传播的可能性.
- 在各种土地使用场景下模拟飞狐与人类的互动.
主要方法:
- 利用了最佳食理论和基于个人的建模.
- 模拟飞狐种群动态,跨越不同息地 (城市,森林,果园,水体) 的合成景观.
- 分析了农业化,城市化,森林碎片化和再造林的影响.
主要成果:
- 息地碎片化,特别是由于城市化,通过增加物种间接触,显著提高了动物性传染病溢出风险.
- 生态退化的森林加剧了溢出风险.
- 再造林场景表明,溢出风险减少了.
结论:
- 息地破坏和碎片化是与飞狐相关的动物传染病风险的关键驱动因素.
- 保护战略,包括息地恢复和再造林,对于减轻疾病传播至关重要.
- 土地利用规划必须考虑野生动物与人类的相互作用,以防止未来的公共卫生危机.
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