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贝叶斯分层种群招募模型用于为苏格兰大西洋鱼种群设定保护限值

James P Ounsley¹, Nora N Hanson¹, Gordon W Smith²

¹Scottish Government Marine Directorate, Freshwater Fisheries Laboratory, Pitlochry, UK.

Journal of fish biology

|February 18, 2026

概括

贝叶斯的等级模型通过结合度和土地利用等共变量来改善苏格兰的大西洋鱼保护范围. 这提高了对监测和未监测的鱼种群的预测.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
渔业科学渔业科学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

苏格兰的大西洋鱼 (Salmo salar L.) 种群需要特定种群的生物参考点 (BRP) 来进行有效的管理和保护.
对于所有管理股票来说,导出独立的BRP是数据禁止的,需要先进的建模方法.

研究的目的:

适应贝叶斯分层库存招募模型,以改善大西洋鱼种群的BRP预测.
纳入全国范围的共变量来解释招聘变化,并减少BRP预测中的不确定性.
提高这些模型对非监测库存的适用性.

主要方法:

利用贝叶斯的分层库存招募模型,对多个监测的鱼种群进行联合分析.
在模型中整合了国家相关的协变量,包括度,土地使用和每区域的历史捕捞量.
雇员休假-一个组-排除模型选择的交叉验证,优先考虑新库存的BRP预测.

主要成果:

包括共变量在内显著改善了BRPs的样本外预测性能.
与现有方法相比,调整后的模型产生了更具局部歧视性的后期预测.
模型选择成功地最大化了对以前未经评估的股票的BRP预测.

结论:

修改后的贝叶斯分层模型为大西洋鱼国家级BRP估计提供了一个强大的框架.
这些方法提供了更准确和与当地相关的保护限制,有助于管理决策.
该方法可适应应用于面临类似数据限制的其他鱼类和物种.

关键词:

萨尔莫萨尔莫萨尔莫萨尔莫萨尔莫生物参考点是指生物参考点.进行交叉验证.渔业管理渔业管理库存和招聘情况

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