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过度自信是过度交易的风险因素吗?

Étienne Gagnon1,2, Isabelle Giroux3,4, Serge Sévigny5,4

  • 1École de psychologie, Université Laval, GRIF-Jeu, Quebec City, Canada. etiennegagnon11@ulaval.ca.

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概括

过度估计交易业绩会增加个人投资者过度交易的风险. 这种认知扭曲,类似于博,突出了有问题的财务决策的关键因素.

关键词:
过度交易 过度交易个人投资者 个人投资者过度的自信过度的自信股票交易模拟 股票交易模拟技术分析技术分析技术分析

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科学领域:

  • 行为金融是行为金融.
  • 认知心理学 认知心理学
  • 金融市场 金融市场

背景情况:

  • 博和交易共享风险和过度行为的潜力.
  • 认知扭曲,比如博中的控制错觉,在过度交易中没有得到充分研究.
  • 过度自信,包括过度估计,过度放置和过度精确,是过度交易中的潜在认知因素.

研究的目的:

  • 调查过度信任模拟金融决策与过度交易风险之间的联系.
  • 检查技术分析交易中的高估和超位如何与过度交易的可能性有关.

主要方法:

  • 70名个人投资者使用技术分析参与了模拟交易任务.
  • 在模拟交易过程中评估过高估值和过度配置.
  • 使用适应的问题博严重性指数来衡量过度交易风险.

主要成果:

  • 过高估值,而不是过度配置,显著差异化了投资者,过度交易的风险较低或较高.
  • 模拟交易中的高估值水平与中等至高过度交易风险的可能性更高相关.
  • 这些发现与有关博问题的研究一致,其中认知扭曲会增加风险.

结论:

  • 估值过高是一个重要的认知因素,与个人投资者的过度交易风险有关.
  • 这些发现表明,针对过度信心的潜在干预措施可以缓解过度交易.
  • 进一步的研究应该探索对测量工具和决策任务的调整,以深入了解过度交易风险因素.