一个分数顺序框架,用于登革热传播动态与人对人和蚊子对蚊子的途径
Queeneth Ojoma Ahman1, Emmanuel Olurunfemi Swnewo1, Solomon Onuche Joseph1
1Department of Mathematics/Statistics, Confluence University of Science and Technology, Osara, Nigeria.
Journal of vector borne diseases
|February 18, 2026
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的分数顺序登革热模型,集成多种传播途径. 研究结果显示,在分数动态中的记忆效应会延长疫情的爆发,影响控制策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 登革热是全球重要的健康问题,每年造成数百万例感染.
- 当前的模型往往忽略了非载体传播,限制了对疫情持续性的理解.
研究的目的:
- 开发第一个分数级登革热传播模型,包括人-人,蚊子-蚊子和人-蚊子的传播途径.
- 分析记忆效应和多路线传播对登革热动态的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用卡普托的分数导数来模拟记忆效应和非局部时间行为.
- 集成的人对人,蚊对蚊,人对蚊和蚊对人传播途径.
- 采用分析和数值模拟来研究模型行为.
主要成果:
- 观察到向后分叉,表明登革热的持久性甚至低于1的基本生殖数.
- 断片动态被证明可以减缓流行病衰变,延迟峰值,并延长疫情持续时间.
- 记忆效应显著影响疾病的持续性和控制措施的有效性.
结论:
- 分数顺序模型弥合了登革热传播研究中的差距,包括多路线和依赖记忆的过程.
- 结果为开发综合登革热控制策略提供了见解,考虑了矢量,非矢量和记忆效应.
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