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由于过早死亡而导致的未来与温度有关的劳动力损失:一项多国研究
Bo Wen1, Zanfina Ademi2, Yao Wu1
1Climate Air Quality Research unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, 3004, Australia.
Environmental research
|February 18, 2026
概括
气候变化将增加与热有关的死亡人数,减少与寒冷有关的死亡人数,影响劳动生产率. 社会经济因素显著影响了这些与温度相关的生产力调整寿命年 (PALY) 损失.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 职业健康 职业健康 职业健康
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了极端天气事件,包括极端温度.
- 未来温度极端对因过早死亡而导致的劳动力损失的影响尚不清楚.
- 量化这些影响对于制定有效的适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计非最佳温度与因过早死亡而损失的生产力调整寿命年 (PALY) 之间的关联.
- 在各种气候变化情景下,预测未来的PALY损失是由于温度极端而产生的.
- 分析社会经济因素对与温度相关的PALY损失的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用来自1066个全球地点的历史每日全因死亡数据 (1986-2019).
- 应用了两阶段时间序列分析,以将温度变化与死亡率和PALY损失联系起来.
- 从三个气候变化情景 (2021-2100) 中整合预测温度,预测未来的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计全球与热相关的PALY损失将增加,与寒冷相关的PALY损失将减少.
- 确定巴西和泰国在SSP5-8.5.5下经历了与热量相关的PALY损失增加.
- 在智利,澳大利亚,加拿大和泰国北部,与寒冷相关的PALY损失有显著的减少.
- 证明了社会经济因素,如人均GDP和贫困水平大幅度调节这些变化.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将将与温度相关的死亡率和劳动力损失的负担从寒冷转移到热量.
- 社会经济发展在确定气候变化对未来劳动生产率影响的程度方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 调查结果强调需要有针对性的适应政策,以减轻气候变化引起的极端温度的社会经济后果.
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