一个泄漏检测和修复程序的高效模拟
Christiane Lemieux1, Kyle J Daun2, Augustine Wigle3
1Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo, Waterloo N2L 3G1, Canada.
概括
蒙特卡洛 (MC) 模拟改进了石油和天然气泄漏检测和修复 (LDAR) 计划的甲排放估计. 与传统方法相比,以事件驱动的模拟与低差异抽样显著减少估计误差.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 计算科学 计算科学
- 能源系统 能源系统
背景情况:
- 蒙特卡洛 (MC) 模拟被广泛用于估计甲排放量以及石油和天然气行业的泄漏检测和修复 (LDAR) 计划的成本效益.
- 目前的模拟技术可能存在很高的差异,从而限制了结果的统计确定性.
- 有效的模拟方法对于准确评估环境影响和计划有效性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和展示一个高效的模拟方法来估计甲排放和LDAR计划的成本效益.
- 与当代模拟技术相比,减少估计器的差异.
- 提高对LDAR计划有效性的分析的统计能力.
主要方法:
- 实施事件驱动模拟方法,远离日常模拟.
- 采用低差异抽样,而不是简单的随机抽样来生成场景.
- 将拟议方法应用于用于灵敏度分析的简化LDAR程序模型.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模拟方法产生了差异明显较小的估计器.
- 在敏感性分析中,在相同的计算时间内观察到大约3到4的误差减少.
- 更高的精度使得关于LDAR计划对排放的影响的统计证据更为确.
结论:
- 开发的模拟方法为评估LDAR程序提供了更有效,更精确的方法.
- 事件驱动模拟和低差异采样提高了甲排放和成本效益估计的可靠性.
- 这种方法为石油和天然气行业的环境管理决策提供了更强大的统计支持.
关键词:
对于FEMP来说,这是一个很好的选择.拉达尔 (LDAR) 是一个叫做拉达尔的系统.泄漏检测 泄漏检测 泄漏检测 泄漏检测甲是一种甲.甲排放量 甲排放量石油和天然气的石油和天然气.几乎是蒙特卡洛的样子.不确定性是一种不确定性.更多相关视频
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