预测伊朗东北部道路交通伤害:COVID-19的影响和时间序列分析 (2009-2023)
Toktam Akbari Khalaj1, Taiebe Kenarangi2, Vahid Fakoor3
1Department of Statistics, Emergency Medical Services, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Open access emergency medicine : OAEM
|February 19, 2026
概括
在伊朗马什哈德,COVID-19限制措施显著减少了14.8%的道路交通伤害 (RTI). 然而,预计疫情后RTI的增加,需要有针对性的安全干预.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 运输安全运输安全
背景情况:
- 道路交通伤害 (RTI) 是一个重大的全球公共卫生挑战.
- 减少RTI的有效策略需要对事故数据进行彻底检查.
- 了解影响RTI的因素对于公共安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查COVID-19流行病对伊朗东北部道路交通伤害的影响.
- 分析马什哈德的RTI趋势,考虑到其独特的朝圣者和通勤者的人口统计数据.
- 利用时间序列分析来了解与流行病相关的RTI影响.
主要方法:
- 季节性自回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型被用于时间序列分析.
- 数据涵盖2009年至2023年,来源于官方国家记录.
- 使用R软件进行了统计分析.
主要成果:
- 从2019年到2020年,平均每月的RTI下降了14.8% (从2385到2035).
- 这种减少具有统计学意义 (p < 0.05),与大流行交通限制有关.
- 在RTI数据中确定了季节性模式和非静止性.
结论:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,RTI的发病率在研究区域显著受到影响.
- 由于疫情后流量增加,预计RTI的预计上升趋势.
- 迫切需要有针对性的干预措施来缓解不断上升的RTI并提高道路安全.
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