评估野火与烟雾相关的死亡率,从减缓气候变化中获益
Minghao Qiu1,2, Christopher W Callahan3,4, Iván Higuera-Mendieta3
1School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794.
概括
气候变化加剧了野火烟雾,导致美国的死亡率显著. 将变暖限制在2°C,将死亡人数减少14%,突显了温室气体减排带来的经济效益.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 人类引起的气候变化加剧了野火风险和相关的空气污染.
- 气候引起的野火烟雾影响往往被排除在社会成本估计之外.
- 烟雾中的细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 对健康构成重大风险.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个框架,估计美国气候引起的野火烟雾造成的空气污染和死亡率.
- 在不同的温室气体排放和温度场景下量化健康损害.
- 将野火烟雾损害纳入碳计算的社会成本.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个综合框架来模拟野火烟雾中的PM2.5暴露.
- 经验估计的火灾植被反来预测未来的燃烧概率.
- 在各种变暖情景下计算死亡损害和货币化损害 (碳的社会成本).
主要成果:
- 在3°C的变暖下,美国每年因烟雾暴露而导致的死亡人数估计为64,000人 (60%的增长).
- 将全球变暖限制在2°C,每年烟雾相关死亡率降低14% (8,900人死亡).
- 2025年每增加一二氧化碳,就会因美国野火烟雾死亡率造成11.2美元的货币损失.
结论:
- 野火烟雾损害大大增加了美国的碳社会成本74%.
- 温室气体减排通过减少气候引起的野火烟雾死亡率,提供了显著的经济效益.
- 将野火烟雾纳入气候损害评估对于准确的政策评估至关重要.
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