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在墨西哥进行基于集群的登革热预测的拓数据分析
1Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito Exterior s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510, Ciudad de México, Mexico.
Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology
|February 19, 2026
概括
拓数据分析 (TDA) 通过将形状感知特征集成到集群通用线性模型 (GLM) 中,提高了墨西哥登革热发病率预测. 虽然TDA没有提高短期技能,但它提高了区域监测的解释性和模式分层.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 登革热发病率呈现出复杂,动态的模式,挑战了传统的预测.
- 拓数据分析 (TDA) 为复杂的数据结构提供了形状感知描述符.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估墨西哥每周登革热发病率的集群预测管道.
- 将TDA整合到特征工程中,以进行增强的流行病模式分析和预测.
主要方法:
- 一个结合TDA (持久性图,持久性图像) 与高斯混合集群和集群级通用线性模型 (GLM) 的管道.
- 使用滚动起源评估与基线对比的Poisson和负二项式 (NB2) 模型的比较.
- 评估TDA/PI对预测技能,可解释性和模式分层的影响.
主要成果:
- 负二项式 (NB2) 模型在三个集群中始终优于波桑模型,证明了较低的平均绝对误差 (MAE).
- 包括TDA和持久性图像 (PI) 并没有显著改变一周预测的准确性,但大大提高了解释性和分层.
- 对IP的分析强调了登革热发病率的独特,集群特异的动态模式.
结论:
- 开发的工作流提供可重复的,可操作的,基于集群的登革热预测.
- 通过TDA,人们可以更好地了解流行病的动态,这有助于区域监测工作.
- 与TDA结合的NB2模型为登革热预测提供了一个强大的方法.
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