在入院时没有器官衰竭的患者中,预测进展到严重的急性胰腺炎的预测模型
Jianhua Wan1, Yaoyu Zou1, Maobin Kuang1
1Department of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
概括
一个新的ACR得分预测了初始急性胰腺炎 (AP) 但没有器官衰竭 (OF) 的患者的严重急性胰腺炎 (SAP) 进展. 这个简单的工具有助于识别高风险个体,以便更好地管理.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 临床医学 临床医学
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 即使没有最初的器官衰竭 (OF),急性胰腺炎 (AP) 也可以发展为严重的急性胰腺炎 (SAP).
- 预测这种进展对于及时干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个简单的评分系统来预测SAP的进展.
- 为了识别没有初始的OF的AP患者,他们有发展SAP的风险.
主要方法:
- 利用了一个前性地维护的AP数据库.
- 使用多变量逻辑回归,Boruta和LASSO进行变量选择.
- 开发了一个名ogram,并得出了一个简化的ACR分数.
主要成果:
- 在3,813名没有初始OF的AP患者中,有12.0%的患者进展到SAP.
- 该ACR得分显示出强大的预测性表现 (AUC 0.827),表现优于APACHE II,SIRS和BISAP.
- 将风险分为低,中等和高风险分层显示,SAP发病率显著增加 (2.9%,16.5%,52.1%).
结论:
- 在AP患者中,ACR得分有效地分层SAP进展风险,没有初始的OF.
- 包括六个易于访问的临床参数.
- 有助于早期识别高风险患者.
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