基于相关性的特征重要性分析,以改善混合光伏系统中机器学习稳定性预测
Veenita Swarnkar1, Shimpy Ralhan1, Mahesh Singh2
1Shri Shankaracharya Technical Campus, Bhilai, Chhattisgarh, India.
Scientific reports
|February 19, 2026
概括
梯度提升 (GB) 在预测混合光伏系统的电网电压和稳定性方面表现出色. 这种机器学习模型为可靠的智能电网运行提供了卓越的准确性和稳定性,并集成可再生能源.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确的电网电压和稳定性预测对于现代电力系统至关重要,特别是随着可再生能源集成的增加.
- 现有的机器学习模型需要严格的评估来预测网联混合光伏 (PV) 系统的性能.
研究的目的:
- 严格评估五种机器学习模型 (随机森林,额外树木,支持向量回归,猫提升和梯度提升) 在与电网连接的混合光伏系统中的预测性能.
- 为了确定最准确和最强大的模型,用于电网电压和稳定性预测.
主要方法:
- 一个包括R2,MAE,RMSE和MAPE在内的多度框架被用于评估.
- 使用了先进的视觉诊断,如错误分布和时间趋势分析.
- 一个受控的 MATLAB/Simulink 数据集被生成以捕捉非线性混合光伏运行模式.
- 应用了相关权重特征工程来提高模型的可解释性.
主要成果:
- 渐变增强 (GB) 成为表现最好的模型,表现出卓越的准确性和稳定性.
- 对于电网电压预测,GB实现了R2 = 0.9785和最低的MAPE = 0.25%.
- 对于稳定性得分预测,英国实现了R2 = 0.9300和最低的MAE = 0.75,超过了所有其他模型.
结论:
- 梯度提升是智能电网预测的高度准确和强大的解决方案,为实时监控和控制提供可操作的见解.
- 在静态和动态条件下GB的平衡性能使其适用于可再生能源丰富环境中的弹性电网管理.
- 该研究提供了ML模型的统一基准测试,确定GB为电压和稳定性预测中最可靠的预测指标.
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