在摩洛哥使用地理信息系统和多标准决策分析绘制高度致病性禽流感的空间风险映射:针对性监测和控制的影响
Fadoua Boudouma1,2, Hicham Hajji3, Mariette Ducatez4
1Department of Animal Health Regulation, National Office of Food Safety, 10000 Rabat, Morocco.
Veterinary world
|February 20, 2026
概括
高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) 对摩洛哥构成威胁. 这项研究确定了HPAI引入和传播的高风险地区,为家禽健康的监测和控制策略提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 空间风险评估 空间风险评估
- 传染病建模传染病建模
背景情况:
- 高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) 对家禽产业,国际贸易和公共卫生构成重大全球威胁.
- 摩洛哥,尽管没有证实HPAI疫情,但由于H9N2的特有低致病性禽流感 (LPAI),接近受影响地区和候鸟航线,因此面临脆弱性.
- 了解HPAI引入和传播风险对于在摩洛哥制定有效的监测和控制政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 鉴定和绘制摩洛哥境内高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) 引入和传播的高风险区域.
- 为实施基于风险的监测和有针对性的生物安全措施提供科学基础.
- 加强摩洛哥对潜在HPAI入侵的准备和抵御能力.
主要方法:
- 在省级与地理信息系统 (GIS) 集成的空间多标准决策分析.
- 识别和权衡引入 (如湿地,进口) 和传播 (如家禽密度,市场,运输) 的风险因素,使用分析层次过程与专家输入.
- 使用历史LPAI H9N2疫情数据验证风险图,并通过敏感性和不确定性分析评估模型的稳定性.
主要成果:
- 该研究确定了25个省份 (33.3%) 具有高至非常高的HPAI引入风险,特别是在北部沿海和边境地区.
- 41个省份 (41.3%) 被归类为高至非常高的HPAI传播风险,集中在关键的家禽生产和贸易中心.
- 敏感性分析证实了开发的风险评估模型的稳定性和可靠性.
结论:
- 这项研究提出了第一个全面的HPAI引入和传播在摩洛哥的空间风险地图,以指导兽医当局.
- 这些发现突出了加强监测,早期检测和预防性生物安全干预的优先领域.
- 可适应的方法作为一个有价值的决策支持工具,提高摩洛哥管理禽流感威胁的能力.
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