关于尾部风险在中国制药业供应链中的溢出效应的研究
Cheng Wang1,2, Mengnan Xu1,2, Mengyue Xu1,2
1School of Pharmaceutical Economics and Management, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China.
Frontiers in public health
|February 20, 2026
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
- 金融风险分析 金融风险分析
- 制药行业的动态 制药行业的动态
背景情况:
- 经济不确定性和极端事件的增加需要对制药供应链弹性进行研究.
- 确保中国制药行业的安全,稳定和高质量发展是一个关键问题.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国制药供应链的尾部风险网络.
- 检查结构特征,动态模式和风险溢出效应.
- 识别关键机构并了解各种尾部风险事件下的风险传播.
主要方法:
- 采用了TENET (尾部事件利用网络) 方法.
- 为制药供应链 (2012-2023) 建立了一个尾部风险网络.
- 分析了整体,模块和机构层面的结构特征,时间动态和风险溢出效应.
主要成果:
- 尾部风险是随时间变化的,在风险事件期间,总连接性增加.
- 生产模块是风险的主要来源;生产和分销模块显示集群溢出效应.
- 恒瑞制药,艾尔眼科医院和佛顺制药具有系统重要性;与公共卫生事件不同的是,金融危机会增加风险.
结论:
- 尾部事件普遍增加制药供应链中的风险传播频率.
- 了解网络拓对于提高供应链弹性至关重要.
- 未来的研究应该探索先进的计量经济学和因果发现技术,以获得更深入的见解.
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