在西北大西洋人口动态和幼儿死亡率的驱动因素是海
M Tim Tinker1,2, Garry B Stenson3, Arnaud Mosnier4
1Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA.
概括
海种群受到气候变化的影响越来越大,冰层状况恶化导致年轻海的高死亡率. 收获曾经是主要威胁,但环境因素现在主导着人口动态.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学 海洋生物学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 北大西洋的海面临多种威胁,包括历史上的过度采摘和最近的环境变化.
- 评估这些威胁对人口动态的相对影响是具有挑战性的,特别是对于海洋物种.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用综合种群模型 (IPM) 来研究人为和环境因素在海种群趋势中的转变作用.
- 量化各种死亡因素对七十年人口增长的贡献.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个分层的贝叶斯综合人口模型 (IPM) 与生存的竞争性危险配方.
- 利用了1952-2019年幼犬生产,生育率,年龄结构,人移动和环境条件的数据.
- 进行贝叶斯生命阶段模拟分析 (LSA) 来比较危险贡献.
主要成果:
- 从1951年到1982年,年幼 (YOY) 和成年人的收获是人口趋势的主要驱动因素.
- 1983年以后,收获死亡率的重要性下降,而自然死亡率,特别是YOY的自然死亡率增加.
- 自2000年以来,冰盖异常已成为YOY死亡率的主要驱动因素,超过收获影响.
结论:
- 预计与气候相关的因素,特别是冰层状况恶化,将成为海种群动态的主要驱动因素.
- 这些环境变化将对加拿大和格陵兰的未来可持续收获水平产生重大影响.
- 开发的IPM是探索气候变化影响和告知管理策略的宝贵工具.
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