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动态后期基线,以提高森林管理改进的可信度,以抵消碳排放

Runxin Yu^1,2, Ziheng Zhu², Shize Qin²

¹Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, Fujian 361021, China.

Environmental science & technology

|February 23, 2026

概括

森林碳补偿往往高估了由于基线有缺陷的气候效益. 这项研究揭示了对碳捕获的系统低估,质疑管理活动的附加性,导致碳信用额度膨胀.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
气候变化缓解缓解气候变化缓解
林业管理林业管理

背景情况:

森林碳抵消对气候战略至关重要,但由于基线不准确,森林面临着完整性问题.
改进森林管理 (IFM) 项目声称有显著的碳捕获,但它们的环境完整性往往是可疑的.

研究的目的:

通过构建经验推导的基线,评估中国五个IFM项目的环境完整性.
评估声称的碳捕获的准确性和森林碳抵消项目的管理活动的附加性.

主要方法:

利用卫星观测 (2001-2020年) 的事后反事实方法来构建动态基线.
使用合成控制,统计匹配和机器学习来建模干预前的碳动态.
将经验上得出的基线与项目报告的静态基线进行比较.

主要成果:

反事实基线准确地跟踪了干预前的碳动态,揭示了报告的场景中的系统低估.
项目森林显示自然碳储量积累,与静态基线预测相矛盾.
在研究的项目中,没有发现管理活动的附加性证据.
前期预计的减排量被高估了3.7个因素,后期信贷被高估了1.7个因素.

结论:

当前抵消协议中的偏差基线导致气候效益膨胀和过度信贷.
现有的协议无法解释真正的,动态的森林趋势,破坏了基于自然的解决方案.
强有力的,独立的监测和动态的基线设定框架对于可信的森林碳抵消是必不可少的.

关键词:

基线场景的基本情况.森林碳排放森林碳排放抵消信用的抵消信贷是可以抵消的.这是一个自愿的碳市场.

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相关概念视频

The Carbon Cycle

The Carbon Cycle

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