预测和评估气候变化对美国邻地区焦虑和抑郁的影响:损害函数方法
Anna Belova1, Kate Munson1, Durban Keeler1
1ICF, Reston, VA, USA.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|February 23, 2026
概括
预计气候变化将增加美国成年人的焦虑和抑郁症状日数,并带来重大的经济成本. 低收入人口和像阿巴拉契亚这样的地区面临着不成比例地更高的心理健康负担.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化影响 气候变化影响
- 精神卫生流行病学 精神卫生流行病学
背景情况:
- 现有的关于气候变化和美国心理健康的研究是有限的,经常使用自我报告的数据,缺乏人口规模预测.
- 很少有研究量化了自杀以外的未来心理健康影响,重点关注焦虑和抑郁等更广泛的疾病.
研究的目的:
- 预测1-6°C升温和相关降水变化对美国成年人自我报告的心理健康困难,焦虑和抑郁症症状日的影响.
- 根据当前和本世纪末的社会人口统计情景来量化这些预测的心理健康影响的经济负担.
主要方法:
- 与CMIP6气候模型预测结合的流行病学衍生暴露-反应关系.
- 利用美国疾病控制和预防中心的行为风险因素监测系统 (BRFSS) 数据用于基线发病率和症状日分配.
- 采用蒙特卡洛模拟用于不确定性传播和经济估值,使用医疗支出小组调查数据.
主要成果:
- 1-6°C的变暖可能会导致每年超过401万至18亿个焦虑症状日和329万至14亿个抑郁症状日.
- 估计每年的经济负担在焦虑方面为13-570亿美元,抑郁症方面为11-470亿美元.
- 预计低收入亚群体和阿巴拉契亚等地区将面临最大的心理健康负担.
结论:
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要进行心理健康投资,特别是在经济不利的地区,适应能力有限的地区.
- 促进个人和社区的性对于减轻气候变化的心理健康后果至关重要.
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