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风险分析和基于双J支架结层的诺莫格拉姆预测:对慢性病的解释
Mingbin Xu1, Daoyuan Li2, Shuming He1
1Department of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Hainan, China.
Clinical and experimental nephrology
|February 24, 2026
概括
一个新的名图准确地预测了双J (DJ) 支架层,这是一个常见的并发症. 该工具独特地纳入慢性病 (CKD) 状态,以识别高风险患者以更好地管理.
科学领域:
- 泌尿器科 泌尿器科 泌尿器科 泌尿器科
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 双J (DJ) 支架结是尿路手术后经常出现的术后并发症.
- 现有的DJ支架层的预测模型经常忽视慢性病 (CKD) 患者,限制了它们的临床实用性.
- 这项研究解决了对DJ支架层更具包容性的预测模型的需求.
研究的目的:
- 开发和外部验证一个用于预测DJ支架层的诺米克图.
- 将功能状况,特别是慢性病 (CKD) 纳入化风险预测中.
- 为DJ支架管理提供个性化的风险评估工具.
主要方法:
- 对760名接受了DJ支架安置的上尿路结石手术的患者进行了回顾性分析.
- 多变量后勤回归以确定支架层的独立预测因素.
- 使用337名患者的独立队列进行外部验证;使用ROC,校准和DCA评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 在15.9%的患者中观察到支架层.
- 确定了独立的预测因素:支架内置时间,尿液pH值,每日摄入水和功能阶段.
- 该名录显示出优异的区分 (AUC=0.877) 和外部验证性能 (AUC=0.884).
- 慢性病 (CKD) 显著增加了结的风险,在CKD和尿液pH之间注意到了协同效应.
结论:
- 这项研究成功开发并验证了第一个用于DJ支架层预测的诺米克图,其中包括CKD.
- 命名图是准确的和可概括的,为早期风险识别提供了一个实用的工具.
- 该工具有助于指导个性化支架管理,特别是对于功能障碍患者,以防止损伤.
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