时间依赖的最佳干预措施可以减少沙门氏菌的传播吗? 一个多路径的ODE模型使用来自欧盟的真实数据
Zubair Ahmad1, Serena Crisci2, Bin Sun3
1Division of Statistics, Department of Political Science, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy; Department of Mathematics and Physics, University of Campania, "Luigi Vanvitelli", Caserta, 81100, Italy.
Computational biology and chemistry
|February 24, 2026
概括
优化沙门氏菌控制需要动态干预. 协调策略,特别是早期和持续的策略,可以显著减少疾病的传播,并且对公共卫生具有成本效益.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 沙门氏菌由于复杂的传播途径,造成了全球健康的重大威胁.
- 有效的控制需要有效地分配疾病管理的资源.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析最佳干预策略,以减少沙门氏菌的传播.
- 通过使用数学模型来确定具有成本效益的控制措施.
主要方法:
- 一个分区普通微分方程 (ODE) 模型被开发并与欧盟/欧洲经济区沙门氏菌数据 (2007-2023) 校准.
- 全球敏感性分析确定了关键的流行病学参数.
- 使用最佳控制框架来确定依赖时间的策略,最大限度地减少感染和成本.
主要成果:
- 与没有对照组相比,协调,动态的干预措施显著降低了沙门氏菌发病率.
- 早期和持续的干预策略显示出最高的成本效益.
- 评估了环境净化,食品安全,载体控制,治疗/隔离和教育.
结论:
- 动态和协调的沙门氏菌控制策略对于有效的疾病管理至关重要.
- 早期和持续的干预提供了最具成本效益的方法.
- 该研究为基于证据的沙门氏菌预防和控制提供了一个数据驱动的框架.
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