系统为日益增长的替代疗法需求做好准备:晚期CKD驱动成本,医疗保健资源利用和环境影响在瑞士
Thomas Campbell-James1, Stefan Buff1, Giliane Nanchen2
1Medical Affairs, AstraZeneca AG, Baar, Switzerland.
Advances in therapy
|February 24, 2026
概括
到2032年,瑞士的慢性病 (CKD) 将增加6.7%,晚期病例和成本将大幅上升. 早期发现和治疗对于减轻这些日益增长的负担至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 环境健康 环境健康
背景情况:
- 慢性病 (CKD) 影响了每10名瑞士成年人中就有1人,由于人口老龄化和并发症,患病率不断增加.
- 没有充分了解CKD的全部影响,包括经济和环境因素,这阻碍了医疗保健战略规划.
- 预测是需要为瑞士的公共卫生战略和2050年净零医疗保健目标提供信息的.
研究的目的:
- 预测10年 (2023-2032) 期间瑞士CKD的多维负担.
- 提供数据,为公共卫生战略提供信息,并支持瑞士的净零医疗保健雄心壮志.
主要方法:
- 利用IMPACT-CKD微型模拟模型来预测CKD进展和相关结果.
- 结合了对模拟个体的功能,并发症和临床事件的真实世界数据.
- 经过验证和校准的模型输入和输出与现有文献,现实世界的证据和专家咨询相对应.
主要成果:
- 到2032年,瑞士的CKD病例预计将增加6.7%,晚期CKD病例增加18.1%,置换疗法 (KRT) 增加57.2%.
- 与CKD相关的医疗保健费用预计将增加27.6%,达到42亿瑞士法郎,KRT费用增加77.3%.
- 由于透析需求,CKD将占瑞士医疗保健预算的4.6%,导致显著的生产力损失和温室气体排放增加 (12.9%).
结论:
- 根据IMPACT-CKD模型,瑞士的CKD多维负担将大幅增加.
- 早些时候发现CKD和更广泛地采用指导方针导向的医疗疗可以减轻这些影响.
- 综合性卫生政策和战略公共卫生规划对于减少CKD负担和实现瑞士2050年净零医疗保健目标至关重要.
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