空间时空死亡率模式和温度相关的风险的大动脉解剖在美国:一个国家CDC奇迹数据库分析分析
Heng Wang1,2, Shule Wang3, Keyi Fan4
1Centre for Transplant and Renal Research, Westmead Institute for Medical Research, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Vascular health and risk management
|February 25, 2026
概括
自2013年以来,美国大动脉剖析 (AD) 死亡率有所增加,冬季和特定的人口统计数据显示,死亡率更高. 较低的温度与阿尔茨海默病死亡率的增加有关,因此需要量身定制的预防策略.
科学领域:
- 心血管研究研究心血管研究
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
背景情况:
- 大动脉解剖 (AD) 是一种高死亡率的危急医疗紧急情况.
- 了解AD死亡率趋势和环境因素对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 关于阿尔茨海默病死亡率模式和温度关联的当代数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 描述美国大动脉剖析死亡率的当前模式和长期趋势.
- 调查环境温度与大动脉剖析死亡率之间的关联.
- 预测未来的AD负担,并为预防策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用美国疾病预防控制中心的WONDER死亡率数据 (1999-2023) 进行年龄调整的死亡率 (AAMR).
- 用Joinpoint回归用于趋势分析和NLDAS数据用于月度空气温度.
- 应用相关性和Poisson回归用于温度-AD死亡率关联,使用时间序列模型进行预测.
主要成果:
- 在2023年,AD导致4418人死亡;AAMR为1.73/100,000,在中西部最高,男性,非西班牙裔黑人个人和老年人.
- 从1999年到2023年,AAMR总体下降,但在2013年之后增加.
- 阿尔茨海默病的死亡率在冬季达到顶峰,并且随着温度升高而下降 (10°F的升高与较低的风险相关).
结论:
- 自2013年以来,大动脉剖析死亡率上升,显示出显著的人口和地区差异.
- 较低的环境温度和增加的热变性与较高的AD死亡率相关.
- 这些发现支持了季节性和区域性预防和对大动脉剖析的准备的需要.
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