为结核疫苗M72/AS01E的准备实施:全球需求预测和关键影响因素
Judith Kallenberg1, Dominique Milea2, Thomas Breuer3
1GSK, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Infectious diseases and therapy
|February 25, 2026
概括
一种新的结核病 (TB) 疫苗M72/AS01E显示出潜在的全球影响. 需求预测估计每年需要数百万剂量,强调了早期规划引入结核病疫苗的重要性.
科学领域:
- * 全球卫生和传染病研究.
- * 疫苗开发和实施科学.
背景情况:
- *结核病 (TB) 仍然是一个重大的全球卫生挑战,每年影响数百万,造成大量死亡.
- *M72/AS01E候选疫苗代表了青少年和成人结核病预防的新方法,在没有新结核病疫苗的一个世纪后,标志着一个显著的进步.
研究的目的:
- *估计全球对M72/AS01E结核病疫苗的需求,以确保制造能力.
- * 预测到2045年的疫苗需求,考虑各种采用场景和影响因素.
主要方法:
- * 开发一个全球需求预测模型,包括结核病负担,资金和国家特定的采用能力.
- *假设包括2029年M72/AS01E监管批准,预测包括例行疫苗接种和追赶活动.
主要成果:
- * 预计到2036年,需求将达到每年约5600万剂的稳定状态,在2037年推出第二种结核病疫苗后,需求将降至4300万.
- *七个国家和Gavi资格国家被确定为主要需求中心,分别占需求的61%和50%.
- *场景分析表明,根据有效性,资金和政策建议,潜在需求波动为+43%至-34%.
结论:
- *M72/AS01E疫苗在减少全球结核病负担方面具有显著的前景.
- *成功的引入需要积极的规划,准确的需求预测和利益相关者的合作.
- * 持续完善模型和对资金和政策的早期可见性至关重要,以防止访问延迟.
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