使用替代未观察到异质性建模方法,分析了多次撞车的司机之间的撞车持续时间
Dongdong Song1, Jing Feng1, Yongtao Liu1
1School of Automobile, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, PR China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|February 25, 2026
概括
识别影响事故复发的因素是公共安全的关键. 先进的模型揭示了不同的驾驶员行为和影响重复碰撞间隔的环境条件,为高风险驾驶员提供了有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 交通安全分析 交通安全分析
- 计量经济学建模 计量经济学建模
- 司机行为研究 司机行为研究
背景情况:
- 由于高碰撞频率,经常发生碰撞的司机对公共安全构成重大风险.
- 了解影响事故复发的因素对于开发有效的安全干预措施至关重要.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了重复犯罪者之间碰撞间隔的异质性.
研究的目的:
- 分析影响两次或两次以上碰撞的驾驶员碰撞间持续时间的因素.
- 应用先进的生存模型,以捕捉事故复发中的未观察到的异质性.
- 确定针对性安全战略的特定风险因素和驱动群体.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自中国内蒙古 (2014-2023) 的交通事故记录.
- 应用了一个相关的随机参数生存模型,具有平均异质性.
- 使用隐性类生存模型与类概率函数来分析崩间的持续时间.
主要成果:
- 相关的随机参数模型发现新手和弹司机的异质效应,具有显著的参数相关性.
- 隐性类别分析确定了两个不同的类别,具有不同因素的影响,如以前仅对财产损害 (PDO) 的撞车和在复发间隔上的湿路.
- 两种模型都显示了大多数固定效应变量的一致的方向标志,但效应大小存在实质性的差异,突出显示了异质性.
结论:
- 先进的计量经济学模型有效地捕捉了崩间持续时间的多层未观察到的异质性.
- 确定了关键决定因素,为针对高风险驾驶群体的精确风险干预策略提供了科学基础.
- 研究结果支持开发更有效的行为干预措施,用于驾驶员有多次碰撞的历史.
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