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在湖北省使用结合的生态时间序列模型对人类百菌病进行时空空间早期预警

Qi Chen¹, Buasiyamu Abudunaibi², Xiaoying Zhao²

¹Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China.

Zoonoses and public health

|February 25, 2026

概括

中国湖北地区的百菌病传播与畜牧业和气候有关. 一个综合模型识别了高风险区域,并为有针对性的预防工作提供了早期警告.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
环境健康环境健康
疾病建模疾病建模

背景情况:

血病是中国湖北省的一个重要的动物传播疾病.
了解其传播动态对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.

研究的目的:

分析湖北省血病传播的时空空间模式.
确定影响菌病的关键环境和人口因素.
开发风险评估和早期预警的预测模型.

主要方法:

对2010-2023年流行病学数据的分析,包括人类病例和牲畜数量.
使用MaxEnt模型进行空间风险预测.
使用季节性自回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型进行时间模式和警告有效性分析.

主要成果:

人类血病发病率显示出波动的模式,在2023年出现局部反弹.
疫情季节性高峰 (四月至九月),主要影响男性和农民.
在畜牧密集型地区确定了高风险地区,羊的密度和温度是关键因素.
萨里马模型为各种风险级别提供了差异化的早期警告.

结论:

在湖北,畜牧业,控制策略和气候条件推动了菌病的传播.
综合的MaxEnt-SARIMA模型为风险分类和有针对性的预防提供了一个强大的框架.
差异化的预警方案可以指导不同风险区的精确公共卫生反应.

关键词:

菌病是什么? 菌病是什么?生态利基模式生态利基模式时间空间早期预警

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