空调使用的增加加剧了全球变暖
Hongzhi Zhang1,2,3,4, Yuli Shan5, Ruoqi Li3,6,7
1School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|February 25, 2026
概括
空调 (AC) 的使用推动了大量的温室气体 (GHG) 排放,加剧了全球变暖. 收入的增加增加了交流电的需求和排放,需要向低碳冷却解决方案过渡,以获得公平的机会.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖和社会经济发展正在增加空调 (AC) 使用.
- 空调技术虽然提供了热舒适性,但同时还会排放大量温室气体 (GHG),导致气候变化.
研究的目的:
- 量化全球空调相关的温室气体排放量及其对气候变暖的影响.
- 区分全球变暖和社会经济发展对交流排放的贡献.
- 分析收入不平等在AC接入中的作用及其对排放的影响.
主要方法:
- 在五种气候场景 (SSP) 下建模与AC相关的温室气体排放.
- 将气候驱动的冷却需求与社会经济因素的影响分开.
- 估计可归因于交流排放的温度增加.
主要成果:
- 在SSP245情景下,累积的交流排放量 (2010-2050) 预计为113.3 GtCO2eq,可能使全球平均温度提高0.05°C.
- 气候驱动的冷却需求仅占这一增长的8.3%.
- 收入上升,虽然减少了不平等,但显著增加了排放量 (到2050年将达到14-146亿CO2eq),增加了0.003-0.05°C的变暖.
结论:
- 气候变化增长带来了重大的气候挑战,其驱动力更多来自社会经济发展,而不是气候变化本身.
- 解决冷却接入方面的收入不平等至关重要,但必须与减排战略保持平衡.
- 快速向低碳冷却技术过渡至关重要,以减轻变暖的影响,并确保公平获取.
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